8 January 2026 – After copper, aluminium and nickel prices had risen sharply in recent days, they stabilised again on Thursday. According to media reports, the Italian competition authority imposed a fine of millions on sixteen iron foundries and their association at the end of 2025 for illegal price fixing.
Raw Material Prices Stabilise Again, Spot Markets Remain Steady
After prices for copper, aluminium, and nickel had made in some cases substantial jumps in recent days, they calmed again on Thursday. In Asia, quotations recorded declines.
Nickel: Pullback on the SHFE, LME Rally Fails to Hold
Nickel prices on the SHFE were around 6% lower than on Wednesday. On the LME as well, nickel was unable to sustain the sharp rise from the previous day and was last trading at around USD 17,000 per tonne.
In contrast, prices on the Chinese spot markets for nickel and stainless steel remained largely stable. Recent gains were mostly maintained there, with markets moving sideways on Thursday.
Analysts Divided on the Causes
Analysts cite several possible reasons for the recent movements in nickel prices. One argument is that restocking by major nickel processors may now be largely complete. In addition, nickel inventories in LME warehouses increased by 20,000 tonnes on 6 January 2026. However, inventories are said to have a significantly smaller impact on price developments than is often assumed.
Another ongoing uncertainty is whether the Indonesian government is genuinely committed to lowering ore mining quotas. At present, no definitive conclusion is being drawn as to the primary cause of the sometimes significant price fluctuations.
Thorsten Gerber, CEO of the Gerber Group, said on Thursday: “Nickel price developments over the past few days were too fast and too overheated – for some, this already brought back memories of 2022. The correction that has now taken place was necessary, and I can genuinely welcome it.”
Italy: Multi-Million Euro Fine for Illegal Price Fixing in Iron Foundries
Media reports indicate that Italy’s competition authority fined sixteen iron foundries and their industry association a total of EUR 70 million at the end of 2025 for forming a cartel and engaging in illegal price-fixing. Despite the seriousness of the allegations, the watchdog remained well below the stated maximum fine of EUR 600 million.
Violation of Article 101 TFEU
The authority stated that the agreement, allegedly in force from at least 5 February 2004 until 30 June 2024, included the exchange of sensitive information and the development of joint price indexation mechanisms. These practices were intended to coordinate price increases and strengthen negotiating power vis-à-vis customers, thereby violating Article 101 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
Illegal price-fixing in the steel and iron sector has occurred repeatedly in the past. Examples cited include collusion among European stainless steel producers regarding alloy surcharges, as well as price-fixing arrangements in the heavy plate segment between several major German steel manufacturers during the period from 2002 to 2016.
Against this backdrop, we take the view that market protection measures intended to shield such producers must be assessed particularly critically-especially when illegal price-fixing is alleged to have taken place over such an extended period.
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