Is the green steel dream already running out of steel scrap Stainless Espresso 1200x630 1

28 March 2024 – Green steel seems to be running out of the most important raw material, scrap, even before it penetrates the market. At least that’s the latest assessment from the Boston Consulting Group. And questionable export data in the direction of Russia – India is not aware of any guilt.

Is the green steel dream already running out of steel scrap?

Steel scrap is a much sought-after raw material. Countries around the world are endeavouring to keep ferrous and non-ferrous scrap in their countries. Be it with export bans, taxes or for pretended environmental protection reasons, such as the European Union’s Waste Shipment Regulation.

But at first glance, there still seems to be more than enough scrap, or even an abundance of it. Which is why, for example, they have not made it onto the list of EU Critical Raw Materials.

From 2030, there will be a shortfall of 15 million tonnes of scrap per year

However, a recent article published by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) comes to a completely different conclusion. According to the authors, the 9 million metric tonnes (MT) oversupply in 2021 is expected to lead to a global shortfall in steel scrap of 15 million MT by 2030.

If you take a closer look at the BCG figures, it quickly becomes clear that steel manufacturers are likely to be confronted with intensifying competition for this coveted raw material as early as this year.

Graphic by Gerber Group - Scrap Surplus Deficit Break Point based on data from BCG
Scrap Surplus Deficit Break Point based on data from BCG – Graphic by Gerber Group

This means that green steel may run out of the currently most important raw material even before it penetrates the market. This is because there is still not much to be seen of the alternative Direct Reduced Iron (DRI), especially not of the CO2-neutral variant.

New EU policy agenda needed: less green steel, more liberal economic policy

The EU policy agenda should therefore be clear: Steel consumers must continue to be given affordable and unbureaucratic imports and European overprotection must finally be dismantled! And this can only be achieved in the upcoming EU elections if the incumbent left-wing monarch and Commission President is voted out of office!

Questionable export data in the direction of Russia – India is not aware of any guilt

Recently, India has repeatedly presented itself as neutral when it comes to Russia’s war against Ukraine, presumably to avoid alienating the West completely. The Indian government also appears to be trying to limit arms imports from Russia, at least officially.

Rising exports of aircraft parts, machinery and vehicles

At the same time, Indian export data still shows the close connection to Russia. Even though the West has imposed sanctions against exports of military products to Russia, Indian industry keeps tanks, aircraft and ships of the Russian army in motion.

The questionable moral reasoning of Indian decision-makers: “Russia has never hurt us!

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