3 June 2026 – Prices for hot-rolled coil in the EU continue to rise. At the beginning of July, the largest European steel producer is even said to have raised its prices by more than 11%. Steel producers apparently believe that the recently signed trade agreement between the European Union and Mexico could open up new export opportunities towards Europe. An understandable hope – but on closer inspection, one that evaporates into thin air for Mexican steel producers.
EU: HRC Prices Continue to Rise
According to media reports, prices for hot-rolled coil in the EU continue to rise. At the beginning of July, the largest European steel producer is said to have raised its prices by more than 11%. Steel mills are also said to expect significant price increases overall for the third quarter, driven by import scarcity as a result of the new EU trade defence measures.
Since the announcement of the new steel tariffs and quotas in October 2025, European steel tariffs have therefore risen by more than 40%, putting them drastically above the increase of “only” 3.25% forecast by the Commission.
ECB Could Counter Inflation Fueled by Unnecessary Price Increases
The madness is also that the European Central Bank could counter inflation fueled by unnecessary price increases, including through excessive trade defence measures, with rising interest rates. To do this in an economic situation in which one really cannot speak of prosperity or exceptionally high economic growth is therefore unlikely to contribute to any improvement in the situation or to rising demand in the EU.
Nickel Prices Settle into a New Range
After a healthy and manageable pullback, nickel prices moved stably sideways today in Asia and at the start of trading in Europe.
Will the EU-Mexico Trade Agreement Revive Steel Trade?
Steel producers apparently believe that the recently signed trade agreement between the European Union and Mexico could open up new export opportunities towards Europe. An understandable hope – but on closer inspection, one that evaporates into thin air.
The Facts are Clear: EU to Introduces Steel Tariffs and Quotas for all Trading Partners
The facts are clear: the EU has made it unmistakably clear that, when the new safeguard tariffs and import quotas are introduced, all trading partners without exception will be subject to 50% tariffs – free trade agreement or not. Where FTA texts get in the way, Brussels intends to simply invoke the bilateral safeguard clauses. The EU-Mexico agreement does contain such a clause – but for steel trade between the two partners, it is likely simply not relevant.
The Real Crux Lies Elsewhere for Mexico
The real crux lies elsewhere: Mexico’s steel exports to the EU are simply too small in volume to justify a dedicated tariff-rate quota. Anyone who cannot demonstrate a relevant trade volume is likely to come away empty-handed in the quota allocation – that is the bitter logic of the new steel tariff regime. Australia removed steel from ongoing FTA negotiations with the EU for exactly this reason.
Particularly spicy: Mexico itself, in return, exempted its own free trade partners from steel tariffs. The Mexican government is therefore behaving consistently in market-economy terms – and will likely be rewarded by the EU with discrimination.
The conclusion is sobering: the optimistic assessments by steel producers are, in all likelihood, a simple information error – and we do not want to accuse anyone of deliberately spreading misinformation. Anyone familiar with the EU rulebook knows: for Mexico, the FTA brings only disadvantages when it comes to steel.
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Disclaimer: Many things here represent our opinion. Others are information from the Internet. We can therefore never claim to be correct or complete. And never base a business decision solely on the news you receive from us.
