7 August 2024 – The latest WTO annual report forecasts a further increase in world trade for 2024 and also for 2025. Will a new EU anti-dumping investigation against HRC imports be launched in August? And an opinion: LME must urgently adjust nickel stocks downwards!
WTO report: World trade continues to grow
The volume of global trade in goods was six per cent above pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2023, according to the World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) annual report. Trade in commercial services has risen by 21 per cent since 2019, while trade in digitally provided services has even increased by more than 50 per cent. The expected growth-supporting interest rate cuts by many central banks in the coming quarters should also contribute to the recovery in global trade.
WTO expects further increase for 2024 and 2025
For the years 2024 and 2025, the WTO anticipates an increase in trade in goods of 2.6 and 3.3 per cent and even stronger momentum in internationally provided services. The Asian economies – which, according to the WTO, should account for almost half of global export growth and an even larger share of import growth over the next two years – are likely to benefit the most from this.
New EU anti-dumping investigation against HRC imports coming?
According to recent media reports, the European Commission could initiate anti-dumping proceedings against carbon steel hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports from Egypt, Japan, India and Vietnam as early as August. Some reports even expect the anti-dumping investigation to start this week, after the countries concerned have allegedly already been informed of the planned proceedings.
Is the EU Commission continuing its misguided economic protectionism?
With such a drumbeat against around 50% of European HRC imports, the disastrous economic protectionism of the EU Commission would enter the next round. And once again ignore what has already been made abundantly clear in the EU Safeguard investigation: That the EU’s undersupply of steel has already reached catastrophic proportions and that the needs and concerns of the steel processing industry and the many small and medium-sized enterprises in this sector have to take second place to the demands of EU steel manufacturers.
According to rumours, the anti-dumping proceedings against HRC imports from Egypt, Japan, India and Vietnam, which are now most likely to take place, appear to be driven by forces similar to those behind the last EU anti-circumvention proceedings against stainless steel.
Opinion: LME must urgently correct nickel stocks downwards!
Shortly before the publication of the next Country of Origin Stocks of the London Metal Exchange (LME), which are intended to create transparency in the origin of the raw materials traded on the LME, a short commentary on the Country of Origin Stocks for nickel and the Russian stocks contained therein.
Nickel stocks artificially high?
It has been clear for several months now that Russian nickel has been sanctioned for the time being, particularly by the West, and has therefore become de facto non-tradable. Nevertheless, Russian nickel stocks continue to be listed on the LME, thereby improperly influencing the alleged availability of this important raw material and thus also the price. With a share of approx. 20 to 22% of LME nickel stocks of Russian origin, this is a significant proportion.
Time has come to correct inventories
Due to the increase in nickel stocks in recent months and the existing sanctions (which are unlikely to be lifted in the coming years), we believe that there is no longer any justification for the LME to continue to report these stocks. The next Country of Origin Report would therefore be an excellent opportunity for the Western LME to show real size and courage and finally correct this situation.
Latest news
- Nikkei index jumps more than 10% upwards on Tuesday
- NPI prices continue to rise due to robust demand
- Indonesian nickel ore and NPI prices have risen strongly since start of the year
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