Stainless Espresso: Export tax cut on Chinese aluminum in 2022?
Stainless Espresso: Export tax cut on Chinese aluminum in 2022?

December 16, 2021 – Export taxes on Chinese aluminum products could fall in 2022. This is according to Chinese government documents we have been able to view. Ends EC aluminum anti-dumping suspension? The US Federal Reserve’s announcement to accelerate tapering is positively received by the markets. Base metal prices pick up. Demand greater than supply: there is a shortage of 1.3 million tons of primary aluminum.

Nickel, aluminum and copper up

The LME, but also the SHFE, show today quite positive. Especially for nickel (+1.29%), aluminum (+1.22%) and copper (+2%) it goes up on the LME today neatly. But also zinc (+1.2%) and lead (+1.42%) move along well. The background here is the tapering of the US Federal Reserve doubled to $ 30 billion and the expected interest rate increases in 2022.

There are also good figures to report from China. For hot-rolled coil, iron ore, stainless steel and coke futures it goes up. Base Metals are also showing up on the SHFE.

NPI production Falls

In China, production remains constrained at some nickel producers, which has led to a decline not only in nickel pig iron (NPI) production, but also in high-grade nickel. As a result, approximately 8,000 MT less nickel products are expected to be produced in December.

Undersupply of primary aluminum

As the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) currently reports, almost all base metals (primary aluminum, copper, lead, zinc and nickel are in undersupply for 2021. The undersupply is particularly drastic for primary aluminum. According to WBMS, there is a shortage of at least 1.36 million tons in 2021.

China: Will aluminum export taxes fall in 2022?

China could significantly reduce export taxes for aluminum products in 2022. That’s according to China’s plan for likely upcoming import tariffs and export taxes, which we’ve been able to view.

Will the suspension of EU anti-dumping duties on aluminum end?

This potential change in aluminum export taxes could be counterproductive to extending the suspension of European anti-dumping duties on flat-rolled aluminum products originating in China. Such a drastic change in the price structure could immediately trigger a review of the anti-dumping suspension due to economic changes, as the European Commission would have every argument on their side to end the suspension immediately.

Chinese import tariffs on steel to fall

Furthermore, it is interesting to note that China could lower import tariffs on some steel products in 2022. This leads to the logical conclusion that China itself has shortcomings in its steel supply.

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