August 16, 2021 – According to current calculations, the upcoming US infrastructure bill will increase domestic steel demand and require an additional 17 million tons of steel and stainless steel. Already, the United States is short 40 million tons of steel. US plate prices are up more than 215% year-on-year and further price increases are expected. Taiwanese steelmakers are raising prices again. And SHFE Base Metals are up again this morning.
US Plate prices are holding at a very high level
US Plate prices are up more than 215% year-over-year and are currently holding at around $1,660 per ST. For October 2021, market participants expect that Plate prices could increase by another $100 to $120 per ST.
US infrastructure law increases US steel demand
With the more than $1 trillion infrastructure bill in the United States taking another major step forward last week, the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) calculated how much demand for steel is expected to pick up.
U.S. needs more than 17 million tons of additional steel
For every $1 billion U.S. invested in infrastructure, AISI estimates that about 50,000 ST of steel and stainless steel will be needed. Which would ultimately add up to more than 17 million ST of additional steel needed.
There is already a shortage of 40 million tons of steel
Steel demand in the United States, which already cannot be met by domestic steel producers, would thus increase significantly further. There is already a shortfall of 40 million tons of steel and stainless steel for 2021 and 2022.
Currently, prices for US HRC are already over $1880 per ST. With this increase in steel demand, prices are likely to remain high.
Taiwan: Next steel price increase expected in September
After a brief pause in steel price increases, China Steel has announced it will raise steel prices again starting in September 2021. The reason given is increased raw material costs, e.g. for coking coal, and the generally very high demand for steel.
Shanghai Base Metals up on Monday
Shanghai base metals rose mostly Monday morning after the rising U.S. import price index added to market concerns about an economic recovery.
Stainless steel in short supply and high demand
Chinese stainless steel remains in short supply due to production constraints and very high demand. Nickel remains in high demand. Analysts expect nickel prices to continue to rise.
Source: shfe.com.cn, lme.com
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