9 March 2022 – According to current calculations, the failed Tsingshan/ Big Shot nickel speculation for approx. 200,000 MT of nickel has cost the Chinese Group at least 8 billion US dollars. Nickel trading on the LME is suspended until at least 11 March 2022. German Dax starts trading at over 13,000 points. Indian steel future prices reach new record high. Increase of more than 40% since end of December 2021.
Tsingshan again: speculation costs group at least $8 billion
The Chinese nickel and stainless steel producer Tsingshan has influenced nickel prices several times in the past. The last major collapse in nickel prices occurred when Tsingshan announced at the beginning of 2021 that it would be able to convert cheap nickel matte into battery nickel. Even then it was obvious that here was a press release to unsettle the market and push down the prices that had risen at the time.
Trader Big Shot works for Tsingshan
According to unanimous market opinion, the efforts of the trader “Big Shot” are behind this to keep the prices for nickel as low as possible in order to generate the greatest possible profits for the Tsingshan Group. Tsingshan’s speculations have now gone horribly wrong because of the sanctions against Russia.
Fight over nickel prices has been going on for a long time
Even before the outbreak of fighting in Ukraine, nickel prices had risen significantly. As early as mid-February 2022, we took a current look at nickel matte and noted that it had no significant effect on the nickel price. Also against the background that the trader Big Shot probably tried to influence the price with new press releases on Nickel Matte deliveries and his margins were already threatened there.
100,000 $ per tonne nickel
With the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict, nickel prices then shot up exorbitantly. Within just two days, the price on the London Metal Exchange rose to a historic high of more than $100,000 per tonne. Then, on 8 March, the LME stopped trading nickel and announced that it would turn back the clocks on nickel by one day.
Tsingshan loses at least $8 billion
According to market reports, the failed nickel speculation cost Tsingshan Group at least $8 billion, as the group does not have a contracted short position of about 200,000 MT of nickel and must now procure it elsewhere.
Credit banks worried about their money
The group’s credit banks are already worried about their outstanding debts because of the huge sum. And the Tsingshan Group seems to be trying to allay these concerns, at least behind closed doors. Whether the group will survive this in the face of the Chinese regulators and their measures against commodity speculation, also in view of the strongly increased nickel prices on the SHFE, remains to be seen.
LME nickel trading further suspended
Nickel trading on the LME remains suspended. According to reports from the London Metal Exchange, this will remain the case until at least 11 March 2022. Efforts are still being made to deal with the events of 7 and 8 March. In addition, the LME has decided not to publish official opening and closing prices for nickel during this period.
German DAX starts with 3% plus
The German DAX index started today, Wednesday, at more than 13,000 points, up about 3%. Looking at yesterday’s trading, plant and machinery manufacturers in particular trended higher. But in view of possible increases in the NATO-wide defence budget of more than 80 billion US dollars, shares of defence companies also remain in demand, having already gained an average of 25% since mid-February.
SHFE nickel continues to rise
Nickel on the SHFE has risen significantly again today with a gain of 17%. Aluminium on the LME is up about 1.6% at the start of trading.
Indian steel spot and future prices at rercord highs
Indian steel prices have climbed to a new record high. Indian steel prices have been rising rapidly since the end of December 2021. Currently by more than 40% and there is no end in sight. Spot prices for Indian steel are even several percentage points higher.
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