Today’s Stainless Espresso looks at the current outlook for the Chinese steel market and the possibility that China could stop exporting steel in 2021. What is the situation in Tangshan? And what is happening in Hebei now? Also, iron ores in China could be facing a structural shortage.

Stainless Espresso: Steel market in crisis mode, will China stop steel exports?
Stainless Espresso: Steel market in crisis mode, will China stop steel exports?

Deutsche Bank: China will no longer export domestic steel in 2021

After we reported on this several times, Deutsche Bank has now also taken up the issue. China is taking action on the road to climate neutrality. Chinese steel producers in Tangshan will have to cut their production by 30 to 50% by at least the end of 2021. This means a drop in Chinese steel production of 50 to 70 million tons – just for Tangshan.

China to stop exporting steel?

According to Deutsche Bank, analysts expect that China will therefore probably no longer export any or hardly any domestically produced steel in 2021.

Whether this will really happen, remains to be seen. But at least 50 to 70 million tons less steel produced will have to be compensated for in some way.

International steel market under massive pressure

This will put further pressure on the international steel market. European and US steel producers are already unable to meet domestic demand. Delivery times have already reached August to December 2021 in some cases. Prices are going through the roof. Certain grades of stainless steel will not even be produced in the EU in 2021.

But European steel producers continue to lobby for the EU Safeguard measures to be extended by at least 5 years, according to market sources. So little joy for the EU steel market.


Tangshan and Hebei: Strict environmental controls for steel in China

As reported from China, after the strict environmental regulations for steel mills in Tangshan, now also in the province of Hebei will be massively controlled. The environmental protection measures could thus further extend the production restrictions. In the medium to long term, the upward scope for the production of reinforcing steel and coils is thus very limited.


Iron ore: Structural supply shortage in China

A structural shortage of iron ore is emerging in China. Medium- and high-grade iron ores in particular are preferred by Chinese steel producers. Stocks at ports stopped increasing last week and started to decrease. The new week will show where this trend will develop.


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