German steel price expectations cooled in February compared with recent months, data from S&P Global Platts’ monthly steel sentiment survey show. (Source)
New steel price trend or short-term decline?
Looking at the global development of the steel market, prices tend to go up in the medium to long term. Import volumes to Europe are still limited by market protection measures. Stainless steel prices in South/East Asia have risen continuously in recent weeks.
Steel shortage on the Asian market
And yes, the Asian market is currently focusing more on itself. Which will further tighten the supply of steel. With basic business economics, it can be deduced that prices will rise as a result.
Nickel for electric cars and green steel
The boom in electric driving will also further strengthen nickel prices and thus stainless steel prices. In addition, there are increasing calls for green steel in the EU. Eurofer even warned of this development as early as 2019.
“Total costs of production will rise by 35-100% per ton of steel by 2050 as a result of the costs of using new technologies and more energy”Eurofer, Low Carbon Roadmap (PDF), November 2019
“The consequences of the ENVI vote will be a death sentence for the European steel sector,” Eurofer reiterated this point on February 5, 2021.metalbulletin.com
According to a forecast from a Reuters article in 2019, the green ton of nickel would have to be at least $22,000. At a then current nickel price of $15,700. We are already at over $18,000/mt in Feb 2021. Roughly estimated, green nickel would then have to be at least $25,000 (Source).
Our current steel price forecast
Although there may currently be a short-term cooling of German steel prices, for example, the trend is evidently moving in a different direction. In addition to the general market developments, steel consumers are also facing the challenges of long delivery times in Europe and the difficult logistics chain from Asia.
- Container shortage restricts EU stainless steel imports
- European stainless steel: long delivery times support price rise
- Quo vadis Europe? USA already recording growth in 2020 again
- Japan’s third largest steelmaker raises prices
- Alloy surcharges: Where is the rally on the metal markets heading?
- Eurometal calls on EU to “take care of steel consumers”
We at the Gerber Group have been trading in stainless steel worldwide for over 20 years. We are your experts when it comes to purchasing, import, logistics and services. Information is a vital part of this. Because only then can you and we make the right decisions. Do you have any questions? Contact us now.
Disclaimer: Many things here represent our opinion. Others are information from the Internet. We can therefore never claim to be correct or complete. And never base a business decision solely on the news you receive from us.