10 April 2026 – Just weeks before the EU steel safeguard measure expires on 30 June 2026, the Commission today added two new TARIC codes by implementing regulation. Officially, the aim is to close a circumvention loophole in safeguard – but is that the real story? Aluminium: when availability becomes the real bottleneck. Stainless steel futures on the SHFE were up today.
SHFE Stainless Steel Futures Rise
Stainless steel futures on the SHFE put in a positive session today, recording further gains. They are currently up approximately 1.7% compared with the previous week.
Aluminium: When Availability Becomes the Real Bottleneck
The global aluminium market is experiencing its most severe supply disruption in years. Following rocket and drone attacks on one of the world’s largest smelters on the Persian Gulf at the end of March, annual capacity of 1.6 million tonnes has been taken offline. According to the company, full restoration of primary production could take up to twelve months – the anode cells must be restarted step by step after the metal solidified in the reduction furnaces during the emergency shutdown.
The Conflict Has Already Hit Several Aluminium Smelters in the Region
The news comes against an already strained backdrop. A second major producer in Bahrain had already curtailed around 19% of its capacity – approximately 308,000 tonnes per year – in mid-March due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A Qatari smelter is running at only around 60% of its 648,000-tonne capacity following natural gas cutbacks. Added to this is the previously announced shutdown in March of a major African facility with annual capacity of around 580,000 tonnes. In total, some 2.75 to 3 million tonnes of annual capacity have now been taken off the market – nearly half of Middle Eastern aluminium production and approximately 4% of global supply.
Markets Have Responded: Prices Rise on the London Metal Exchange
Markets have responded. Prices on the London Metal Exchange rose by around 6% in early April to just under $3,500 per tonne and are up approximately 30% since the start of the year. ING analysts put the now-anticipated global supply deficit at between 2 and 2.5 million tonnes – compared with an original forecast of around 360,000 tonnes before the escalation. The $4,000-per-tonne mark is increasingly seen by several analysts as a realistic scenario.
Availability Becomes the Real Challenge
More significant than the price, however, is the qualitative shift: with the loss of flexible reserve capacity – and China’s production ceiling of 45 million tonnes leaving little room for rapid adjustment – availability itself is becoming the bottleneck. Buyers in the automotive, construction, packaging, aerospace, and energy transition sectors must brace for allocations, longer lead times, and rising premiums. Relief could come, at best, from a geopolitical easing at Hormuz or a marked softening in demand – neither of which is currently in sight. Those who start looking for alternatives now are well advised to do so.
EU Safeguard Update: Is Brussels Quietly Extending the Steel Tariff Wall?
Just weeks before the EU steel safeguard measure expires on 30 June 2026, the Commission created two new TARIC codes on 9 April by implementing regulation. Officially, the aim is to close a circumvention loophole: importers had been rerouting rebar through minimal changes to its chemical composition in order to access a more generously allocated quota.
The timing is sensitive. As far back as October 2025, the Commission had already proposed replacing the expiring safeguard measure with a 50% tariff applied to a quota cut by 47%.
Safeguard: An Anti-Circumvention Measure as Covert Preparatory Action?
Whoever expands the scope of safeguard now simultaneously enlarges the surface area of that future regime – and an anti-circumvention measure swiftly becomes a preparatory act.
EU Steel Tariffs: Breach of WTO Obligations and All EU Free Trade Agreements
Notably, a Bruegel analysis from October 2025 had already criticised the Commission’s plan as a breach of WTO obligations and all EU free trade agreements. If Brussels is now quietly expanding its protection regime, it is undermining the EU’s claim to be a rules-based trading partner. Fair play and a level playing field are, it seems, nothing more than worn-out buzzwords – even in Brussels.
Double Burden of CBAM and Steel Tariffs
That the planned EU steel tariffs and CBAM are coming under increasing scrutiny within the European Parliament itself is illustrated by a recent parliamentary question to the Commission, which actively challenges the double burden of CBAM and steel tariffs with regard to WTO compliance and the coherence of EU trade policy.
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