12 September 2024 – Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed his Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin on Wednesday to consider an export ban on nickel, uranium, titanium and other relevant raw materials. Nickel prices on the commodity exchanges reacted sharply to the announcement. And in China, the destocking of aluminium and copper continues.
Is there now a threat of a Russian export ban on nickel, uranium and titanium?
In a meeting yesterday between members of the Russian government and President Vladimir Putin, the President asked Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin to examine the possibility of restricting exports of important raw materials from Russia. President Putin mentioned nickel, uranium and titanium by name, but also referred to the fact that this should also be examined for other relevant raw materials.
Which other raw materials could be affected by an export ban?
Later in the meeting, there was also talk of other raw materials that could soon become scarce in Russia – including chrome, manganese, fluorspar, tungsten and aluminium. There is therefore a possibility that these raw materials could also be subject to an export ban in the medium term.
Nickel prices on LME and SHFE rise significantly after announcement
Nickel prices on the British commodity exchange LME reacted to this announcement with a significant price increase and are trading at more than USD 16,100/MT again today. Prices on the SHFE for nickel contracts NI2409 and NI2410 also reacted to the Russian announcement and rose by more than 2.8%.
What will happen to LME stocks in the event of a Russian export ban?
Even if Western customers may still say that Russian nickel is only traded to a limited extent anyway due to sanctions and that this could have no significant impact, it must be remembered that 20% of current LME nickel stocks are of Russian origin.
With the introduction of an export ban on Russian nickel, the current artificially high LME stocks could undergo a drastic but long-needed downward correction, while the western market will continue to have to fall back on other sources.
China: destocking of aluminium and copper continues to gather pace
According to analysts, stocks of Chinese aluminium have entered the destocking phase. In particular, demand from the automotive and renewable energy sectors in China has increased. International demand for aluminium has also increased, as there appear to be material shortages in some areas.
Copper stocks in China fall by more than 15%
Copper stocks in China have fallen for the tenth week in a row and have dropped to their lowest level since the Chinese New Year. In the last two weeks alone, stocks in the most important Chinese regions have fallen by more than 15%. So far, there seems to be no end in sight to the reduction in inventories and it is assumed that this could increase even further. The demand for copper is considered an important economic indicator worldwide.
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