3 September 2025 – When it comes to excessive demands and spreading rumors, the EU steel lobby is always at the forefront. This time, the discussion centers on a potential successor to the EU Safeguard measure as early as January 2026. But is that even possible? An analysis. Meanwhile, ferrochrome and molybdenum prices have risen significantly since early August.
Ferrochrome Prices Have Risen Sharply Since Early August
Asian ferrochrome prices have increased markedly in recent weeks. Since the beginning of August 2025, prices have climbed by more than 6%. This rise has already had a visible impact on the 400-series stainless steel segment: prices for Asian grade 430 have risen by around 6.3%, while grade 409L has gone up by more than 5.5%.
Molybdenum Prices Continue to Climb
Molybdenum has also continued its upward trend. Since August, prices for ferro-molybdenum have surged by nearly 8%. As molybdenum is a key component of stainless steel grade 316/316L, this has directly influenced price developments. The increase in ferro-molybdenum has already pushed Asian 316/316L prices up by 5.6%.
Rumors of an EU Safeguard Successor from January 2026
When it comes to trade defense measures, exaggerated demands, and rumor-spreading, the European steel lobby has traditionally been leading the charge. The same applies to speculation about a possible successor to the EU Safeguard measure on certain steel products, which is set to expire in June 2026.
With the European Commission’s Steel and Metals Action Plan, which also referenced the possibility of a Safeguard successor, the steel lobby has demanded that a new measure be introduced as early as January 2026.
We therefore want to examine these demands, rumors, and speculations more analytically and factually. Of course, this is no guarantee that the Commission will actually adhere to WTO rules or existing EU regulations.
WTO Instruments Already Exhausted
The EU has nearly exhausted all available trade defense tools under WTO agreements. The current Safeguard measure reaches its maximum duration of eight (8) years by mid-2026 and must then expire. A new EU Safeguard investigation on the same products may only be launched after another eight years. Anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures are, by nature, limited in scope and are already being extensively applied.
Commission Would Have to “Invent” a Safeguard Successor
This means the Commission would have to create an entirely new regulation for a Safeguard successor. Under Article 207 TFEU, it technically has the competence to do so. However, under normal EU legislative procedures, such a process cannot be completed in time. Experience shows this would take at least 12 to 18 months. For comparison, the adoption of the EU Anti-Coercion Trade Defence Instrument took even longer.
Is a Fast-Track Legislative Procedure Possible?
Even if a new regulation were introduced via a so-called fast-track procedure – as was done during the 2020 pandemic – it would likely still require around nine (9) months, provided all legal standards were respected. That would coincide precisely with the expiry of the current EU Safeguard measure in mid-2026.
The Commission’s intentions became clear in its public consultations (Have your say) on the initiative ‘Trade measure addressing the negative trade-related effects of global excess capacity on the EU steel sector‘. To speed up the process, the Commission has chosen, among other things, to forgo a full impact assessment, although such an assessment would be essential to safeguarding the interests of European SMEs. Conducting one would significantly delay the implementation of any Safeguard successor.
Safeguard Successor from January 2026 Unlikely
Based on the available facts, we conclude that the introduction of a Safeguard successor from January 2026 cannot realistically be achieved under proper EU legislative standards. Furthermore, significant legal hurdles remain, since any new TDI would likely be challenged by other WTO members as incompatible with international law.
In our view, the recurring market rumors are nothing more than a well-known sales tactic designed to unsettle customers and influence purchasing behavior. In other words: the EU steel lobby profits handsomely from spreading such uncertainty.
We suggest that, should you encounter this rumor again, you ask the source on what basis they are making such a claim. We would also be very interested in hearing their answer.
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We at the Gerber Group have been trading in stainless steel worldwide for over 20 years. We are your experts when it comes to purchasing, import, logistics and services. Information is a vital part of this. Because only then can you and we make the right decisions. Do you have any questions? Contact us now.
Disclaimer: Many things here represent our opinion. Others are information from the Internet. We can therefore never claim to be correct or complete. And never base a business decision solely on the news you receive from us.
