11 May 2026 – Indonesia and the Philippines signed a Memorandum of Understanding last week to secure the supply of nickel ore to Indonesian smelters. Metals: stable sideways trend, copper clearly ahead.
Base Metals: Stable Sideways Trend, Copper Clearly Ahead
Aluminum is currently moving sideways at around USD 3,500/MT. Midwest premiums, however, set a new record last week: on Wednesday, they stood at around USD 2,523/MT, or USD 1.14/lb, before easing slightly to USD 2,485/MT, or USD 1.13/lb, on Friday.
Copper prices are currently trading at a new record high of more than USD 13,600/MT in early Monday trading – meaning the upward trend in the industrial metal remains intact. Tin showed similar momentum: up by around USD 4,350/t in just one week, from USD 49,750 to USD 54,100/MT last week.
Nickel started the week calmly and remains stable above the 19,000 mark. Zinc and lead are showing slightly positive momentum. Base metals in Asia moved mostly sideways at the start of the week.
Nickel Ore from the Philippines: Indonesia’s Structural Dependence Is Growing
The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association, APNI, and the Philippine Nickel Industry Association, PNIA, have signed a Memorandum of Understanding in Cebu. The aim is a structured “Indonesia-Philippines Nickel Corridor” – in other words, a structured supply chain linking Indonesia’s smelting capacities with Philippine nickel ore.
The Great Paradox in Nickel Supply
What lies behind the diplomatic MoU is, in reality, an admission: Indonesia, the country with the world’s largest nickel reserves, around 45% of global reserves, is importing nickel ore from the Philippines on a growing scale in order to keep its own smelters running. In 2024, these imports already amounted to 10.4 million tonnes, with an estimated 15 million tonnes expected for 2025.
Structural Problem, Not a Temporary Bottleneck
The real core of the problem lies in the growing gap between the rapid expansion of smelting capacity and the significantly slower growth in mining capacity. Added to this is the ongoing decline in the quality of saprolite ore used for NPI after years of intensive mining.
Direct Consequences for Stainless Steel Production
Stainless steel accounts for more than 60% of global nickel demand, making it the most exposed sector. When Indonesia most recently cut its production quotas, not only did nickel prices rise by more than four percent, but NPI, ferronickel, and stainless steel grades such as 304 and 316L also reacted immediately. The ore shortage is also driving up premiums – a cost factor that often does not appear in official price reports.
The Philippine-Indonesian nickel corridor is therefore far more than regional industrial policy – it addresses a structural weak point with direct consequences for global stainless steel and battery prices. How long the limited Philippine nickel reserves can meet Indonesian demand, however, is an entirely different question.
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