16 December 2022 – Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect 2023 will be one of the best years ever for commodities. Especially because rising demand will meet falling supply. And the EU member states decide on new sanctions against Russia. Will this package further exacerbate the commodity shortage?
Outlook for commodities in 2023 more optimistic than ever before
The current Commodity Research report from Goldman Sachs already describes in the introduction the outlook for commodities in 2023 as optimistic as never before. Or as the analysts put it: an underfunded supercycle.
Rising demand in commodities meets falling supply
After the market was dominated by the dollar price in 2022, the analysts at Goldman Sachs expect that in 2023 the market will be dominated by a lack of investment in the expansion and maintenance of raw material production and the further increase in demand for raw materials. So an increasing demand will meet a probably falling supply.
Russia as a supplier of raw materials further out?
Still on Thursday, the 27 EU member states agreed on a ninth sanctions package against Russia. Although details are not yet known and are not expected until this Friday afternoon, original proposals included bans on investment in Russia’s extractive industries. Should this proposal prevail, the prediction of Goldman Sachs should gain some more weight for 2023. And there is no end in sight to the existing sanctions.
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