30 June 2025 – Analysts currently expect nickel prices to rise significantly again in the second half of 2025 due to the scarce availability of nickel ore and the closure of several mines in Indonesia. EU member states agree to modernise their customs procedures. First changes to come in 2028 – but only for e-commerce traders.
EU Customs: Modernisation a long time coming
Last week, EU member states agreed to modernise their customs procedures based on the EU Commission’s 2023 proposal. To this end, customs authorities are to be provided with new tools (e.g. the EU Customs Data Hub) for smoother processing of imports, with long transition periods. In addition, a central customs authority for the European Union is to be created, which will work together with the customs authorities in the member states.
Key points of the EU Customs reform:
- Establishment of a new decentralised customs authority
- Creation of a uniform EU-wide online environment – the EU Customs Data Hub
- Introduction of improved customs simplifications
- Development of a more modern approach to electronic commerce
First changes already from 2028 – but only for e-commerce traders
As is so often the case, however, the Union can only implement such changes very slowly and sluggishly. The first changes are expected to come into effect in mid-2028 for distance selling, i.e. e-commerce traders. And even then, only on condition that the EU Customs Data Hub, the EU’s future central data management centre, is ready for use. The responsible decentralised EU Customs Authority is to be established in 2026 and, according to current plans, will not be fully functional before 2028.
EU Customs Data Hub for all importers only from 2032
From 2032, the EU-wide data platform will then be available for use by all importers on a voluntary basis. However, full functionality will not be guaranteed at this point and is not expected to be available until the end of 2037 at the earliest. It will not be until 2038 that all importers will be required to use the EU Customs Data Hub.
It will therefore be quite some time before the new European Union customs system can be expected to be implemented. The next step is negotiations with the EU Parliament, which are likely to result in further changes to the Commission’s proposal. It therefore remains to be seen whether and when real improvements in the import of goods into the EU can be expected.
Nickel back at USD 20,000 per tonne by the end of the year?
In mid-June 2025, the Indonesian government revoked the mining licences for several nickel mines. It had previously become known that nickel mining was taking place on specially protected islands for which mining licences should never have been granted. Even though these four mines only produced a small portion of Indonesia’s annual mining volume, they accounted for a significant portion of the last remaining high-grade nickel ores.
The declining ore quality in Indonesia, especially in medium- and high-grade deposits, was already affecting nickel pig iron production before mining activities were halted.
Availability of nickel ore severely limited
In a recent interview with Crux Investor, Canada Nickel CEO Mark Selby noted that the availability of nickel ore is now severely limited, as evidenced not only by the price trend for ore, but also by the price development of nickel pig iron and stainless steel. Mark Selby also said that he expects nickel prices to rise to USD 16,500/MT in the second half of 2025 and could even break through the USD 18,000 to 20,000/MT mark by the end of the year.
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