19 June 2025 – LME stock levels of primary aluminium have fallen by almost 66% since June 2024, and the pitiful remains seem to consist almost entirely of unsaleable Russian aluminium. New demands: EU steel lobby wants to fuel inflation and destroy EU competitiveness.
Is the LME running out of aluminium? Stocks have fallen significantly
LME stocks of primary aluminium have fallen by almost 66% since June 2024 and now stand at just under 350,000 MT. Of these so-called ‘on warrant’ stocks in the official LME warehouses, approximately 60 to 70% are likely to be virtually unsaleable Russian primary aluminium that has been subject to Western sanctions (based on Country of Origin Stock Data from 30 May 2025).
A so-called long trade with a considerable term and high volume is also putting additional pressure on the availability of primary aluminium. Overall, everything currently points to a real shortage and not just pure speculation to influence aluminium prices.
EU steel lobby wants to fuel inflation and destroy EU competitiveness
According to media reports, European steel manufacturers and their lobby organisation have called on the European Commission to ensure that a possible safeguard successor, due to come into force in mid-2026, should include tariffs of 50% and a halving of duty-free quotas.
Anti-competitive demands by the EU steel lobby
An increase in safeguard (steel) tariffs to 50% would put small and medium-sized enterprises at a significant competitive disadvantage and unnecessarily fuel inflation in the European Union. Together with the launch of the EU Carbon Border Tax CBAM on 1 January 2026, the financial burden of taxes and tariffs would increase so exorbitantly that many companies would no longer be able to afford it economically.
Import taxes on steel of over 100% are looming!
With CBAM and a possible EU safeguard successor, this would mean a cumulative duty of up to 75% on imports. If we add existing trade defence measures to this, it could quickly lead to import taxes of well over 100%. The more than 40 trade barriers in the intra-European single market would then add to the problem – an issue that even the Commission recently highlighted as serious.
The steel lobby obviously does not care that this could also destroy traditional trade flows and upset important partner countries.
EUROFER’s demands thus show once again that they are only focused on the interests of their multinational corporations, which are their member companies, and are willing to bleed the demand side dry, whether large industrial companies or SMEs.
Thorsten Gerber, CEO of the Gerber Group, said today, addressing the EU steel lobby: ‘Who is going to buy your crap if you destroy your own customer base? Because that’s all your madness will lead to in the end.’
Latest news
- Is the EU changing the safeguard measure through the back door?
- Warning: Beware of EU CBAM myths and half-truths
- Base metals remain stable despite current conflict situation
We at the Gerber Group have been trading in stainless steel worldwide for over 20 years. We are your experts when it comes to purchasing, import, logistics and services. Information is a vital part of this. Because only then can you and we make the right decisions. Do you have any questions? Contact us now.
Disclaimer: Many things here represent our opinion. Others are information from the Internet. We can therefore never claim to be correct or complete. And never base a business decision solely on the news you receive from us.
