26 May 2026 – The world’s largest nickel producer is nationalizing its ferroalloy exports. Anyone who thought NPI imports were a permanent solution may now have a problem. Base metals on the LME are showing stable sideways movement at the start of trading.
Base Metals Start the Week Balanced
After the UK Spring Bank Holiday on Monday, 25 May, the LME opened today relatively balanced compared with Friday. Nickel, copper, and aluminum showed stable sideways movement.
Indonesia Tightens the Nickel Tap Further
The world’s largest nickel producer is nationalizing its ferroalloy exports. Anyone who thought NPI imports were a permanent solution has a problem.
President Prabowo made it official a few days ago: from September 2026, all ferronickel exports from Indonesia will run exclusively through a newly established state-owned company. Contracts, shipments, payment processing – everything under one state roof. Private exporters will become suppliers. Foreign buyers will negotiate with Jakarta in future, not with the producers.
That alone would already be a significant disruptive factor. In combination with what has already been implemented, it could become serious.
Mining Quotas for 2026 Already Cut by Around One Third
The quota cut comes on top. Jakarta has reduced mining quotas for 2026 by around one third to 260-270 million tonnes. Demand from its own smelters stands at 340-350 million tonnes. The deficit: 80-100 million wet metric tonnes, with expected smelter utilization of 70-75% instead of the previous 90%.
Indonesia Must Import More and More Nickel Ore
The punchline: the country with the world’s largest nickel reserves, around 45% of global deposits, is already importing nickel ore from the Philippines on a growing scale in order to keep its own smelters running.
In 2025, Indonesia sourced 15.8 million tonnes of ore from abroad, 97% of it from the Philippines. For 2026, a doubling to 30 million tonnes is expected. This is not a strategic buffer – this is structural dependence.
Anyone who still assumes stable Indonesian ferronickel availability outside Indonesia at this point is ignoring the arithmetic.
NPI and Slabs: EU Imports Significant Volumes from Indonesia
For European stainless steel producers in particular, this is an unpleasant development. For years, despite their loud lobby rhetoric against NPI and stainless steel slabs from Indonesia, they have quietly integrated precisely these imports into their procurement – thereby undermining their own market protection measures against stainless steel.
Now Jakarta sits at the lever: volumes, prices, conditions – everything will in future run through a state entity.
Goldman Sachs has already revised its nickel price forecasts upward. Analysts increasingly regard price targets of USD 20,000/t as realistic.
The market has not yet fully priced this in. Nor have the supply chains.
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