10 July 2025 – Behind the façade of progress – How stable are the EU-US trade negotiations really? German Federal Minister for Economic Affairs opposes new tariffs. US aluminium premiums reach new record high.
US aluminium premiums reach new record high
After reaching a record high of around USD 0.60 per pound in mid-June, US Midwest aluminium premiums fell slightly after the tariffs were paid, but rose again to around USD 0.59 per pound on 1 July. On Wednesday, 9 July, premiums rose again and now stand at around USD 0.66 per pound.
US aluminium premiums in the Midwest are the regional price for aluminium in the Midwest of the United States, which reflects local demand and supply for this metal and is added to the prices for LME aluminium.
Nickel prices rose on Thursday
Nickel prices continue to move sideways in a volatile manner and gained around 1.4% on the SHFE on Thursday. LME nickel prices rose by more than 1.0% shortly after trading began.
Behind the façade of progress – how stable are the EU-US trade negotiations really?
Despite the emphatically constructive rhetoric of EU Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič in his statement yesterday on the status of the EU-US trade negotiations, the prospect of a robust trade agreement between the EU and the US remains fragile. Although Šefčovič highlights intensive negotiations, daily exchanges and progress on the ‘Agreement in Principle’, a different picture emerges between the lines: the EU is openly preparing for failure.
Šefčovič: ‘We are also preparing for every eventuality’
‘We are also preparing for every eventuality,’ says Šefčovič – a sentence that, in diplomatic language, amounts to a clear warning. Similarly, the reference to the ‘red line’ of regulatory autonomy speaks for itself. The EU is sending a clear signal that it will not make any concessions on its legal standards – a position that has regularly led to deadlocks in previous transatlantic negotiations.
The EU is already hinting at alternatives
Added to this is the demonstrative emphasis on other global trade agreements – Mercosur, India, ASEAN countries. This is more than just name-dropping: it is a strategic message to Washington. The EU is making it clear that it has alternatives – and is not prepared to become dependent on its transatlantic partner, especially given the uncertainty of US domestic politics in an election year.
A viable deal by 1 August increasingly unlikely?
Despite diplomatic wording and rhetoric about progress, the key hurdles remain. A viable deal by 1 August therefore seems increasingly unlikely – the starting points are too different and the political risk on both sides too great. Šefčovič’s speech was above all one thing: an attempt to manage expectations – and prepare the markets for all scenarios.
Is such a failure of negotiations already being announced in the wording?
We therefore wonder whether the European Commission is capable of anything other than harassing its citizens and businesses, especially when you listen to the empty phrases of some commissioners.
Today’s vote on a motion of no confidence against the Commission President
With today’s vote on a motion of no confidence against Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in the European Parliament, it could be a good day to put an end to certain things. Unfortunately, we have little hope that a sufficient number of MEPs will have the courage to overthrow the queen and her lackeys.
We do not even doubt that there are enough MPs who know that this would be the right thing to do, but it seems that the fear of internal consequences is too great to actually do it.
German Federal Minister for Economic Affairs against new tariffs
Federal Minister for Economic Affairs Katherina Reiche is sending a clear signal against new trade barriers – both in the transatlantic tariff dispute and in the digital tax. An escalation through new tariffs or levies would ultimately harm the German economy in particular. The trade conflict with the USA is already costing millions of euros every day. Over 6,000 German companies manufacture in the USA and secure almost a million jobs there – they need stable framework conditions.
Reiche’s rejection of a digital tax is therefore logical. Small and medium-sized enterprises in particular are suffering not only from export tariffs, but also from price increases due to EU tariffs on imported raw materials. Those who criticise other countries’ tariffs must not erect new or higher barriers themselves.
Reiche’s stance deserves support: free trade ensures growth, competitiveness and jobs – on both sides of the Atlantic.
Thorsten Gerber, CEO of the Gerber Group, said today: ‘However, we want consistency in this regard, not just double standards that say “foreign tariffs are stupid, only our tariffs are good”. It’s time for disarmament on this battlefield – down with trade barriers, now!’
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