24 June 2026 – A trade-union-affiliated study promises profitable climate steel – but only if the German state guarantees energy prices, pays half the investment costs, and makes imports more expensive. The press cheers, small and medium-sized companies pay. And now it is official: on 1 July 2026, the new and politically controversial European steel tariffs will enter into force.
EU Publishes Steel Tariff Regulation
Now it is official: with the publication of the corresponding regulation in the Official Journal of the EU, the new and politically controversial tariffs of 50% on certain steel products, together with a significant reduction in European Union import quotas, will enter into force on 1 July 2026.
However, the country-specific quotas are still missing – and the Commission apparently has still not been able to reach agreements with all trading partners.
Green Steel: Why “Competitive” Here Only Means “Permanently Subsidized”
A trade-union-affiliated study promises profitable climate steel – but only if the German state guarantees energy prices, pays half the investment costs, and makes imports more expensive. The press cheers, small and medium-sized companies pay.
One Study, Four Headlines, Not a Single Critical Word
“Study: Climate-neutral steel production can be profitable” – on June 24, various German media outlets reported on this story using almost exactly this same dpa-AFX headline. Added to it: an approving quote from IG Metall Vice Chair Kerner. Not a word of context.
Yet a look at the fine print of the study by the Hans Böckler Foundation and the University of Mannheim is well worth it.
“Competitive” – But Only Under Full Protection
The authors calculate production costs of EUR 590 per tonne of crude steel, below the market price. That sounds like market success. In reality, it is the result of a full industrial-policy protection model.
The EUR 590 figure applies only under the following conditions: a capped electricity price of 5 cents/kWh, a guaranteed hydrogen price of EUR 120/MWh, a 50% investment subsidy, an effective CO₂ price plus CBAM, protective tariffs, and “Buy European.”
The study itself provides the counter-calculation: if the electricity price rises to 8 cents, costs climb to EUR 659. If the subsidy is also removed, the figure rises to EUR 704 – around 19% above the baseline scenario and clearly above any real market price.
In other words: without permanent subsidies, the model does not carry itself. “Competitiveness” here does not mean surviving under market conditions, but politically changing market conditions until the desired result appears.
Who Pays the Bill: SMEs and Taxpayers
Steel is not a final product, but an input for mechanical engineering, construction, and metal processing. This is precisely where the package works against the Mittelstand: protective tariffs, local-content rules, and artificially supported domestic prices make inputs more expensive for steel-processing SMEs.
The study looks almost exclusively at the producer side. The downstream industry, the larger part of the value chain, barely appears.
For financing, the paper reaches deep into the bag of tricks: emergency clause, borrowing authorization, reform of the debt brake, and public equity injections that are smuggled past the debt brake as an “asset swap.” Private investment risk is collectivized, while control over efficiency and exit remains vague.
Billions Have Already Been Paid – and Still It Is Never Enough
Remarkably, billions have long since been pledged to the major sites: EUR 2.6 billion to Saarland, around EUR 2 billion to Duisburg, just over EUR 1 billion to Salzgitter, plus an additional EUR 322 million top-up. ArcelorMittal even left EUR 1.3 billion on the table.
Is it enough? No.
The study’s answer to failed subsidies is not to question the subsidy logic, but to demand more subsidies.
A Voice for SMEs
Thorsten Gerber, CEO of the Gerber Group, strongly disagrees: “Anyone demanding even more taxpayers’ money, guaranteed prices, and import tariffs for an industry that is already among the most heavily subsidized of all is not protecting the industrial base – they are burdening it. The bill is paid by the thousands of small and medium-sized downstream processors that have to compete globally with more expensive steel, and by the taxpayer. Real competitiveness comes from favourable location conditions for everyone, not from a protective umbrella for a few large corporations.”
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