16 June 2026 – A major German steel producer is celebrating a hydrogen supply contract as a green breakthrough. The figures show: it is political symbolism on an industrial scale. The tariff domino effect: when protectionism demands even more protectionism.
Raw Materials Settle into a New Range
Asian nickel prices today remained at the level reached after their latest pullback, and a similar sideways movement is emerging in Europe at the start of trading. Asian stainless steel futures posted gains today. Aluminum is currently trading at mid-March levels, reflecting the peace negotiations in the Middle East.
Green Hydrogen in the Steel Sector: Pure Political Symbolism
A major German steel producer is celebrating a hydrogen supply contract as a green breakthrough. The figures show: it is political symbolism on an industrial scale.
The Promise and the Reality
When German steel corporations report major supply contracts for green hydrogen, it sounds like industrial transformation. Salzgitter, for example, has announced a supply agreement – but a look at the figures exposes the theatre: 10,000 tonnes of agreed supply against an annual requirement of 150,000 tonnes. In-house production adds only around 9,000 tonnes.
Deliveries are not even scheduled to begin until 2030 – and will then cover just 6.5% of Salzgitter’s requirements. At EU level, that amounts to less than 0.1% of total demand.
A Project That Had Failed Before It Even Began
As early as 2021, we predicted that the EU’s green hydrogen megaproject – with annual demand exceeding 10 million tonnes – would fail when confronted with reality. Neither the production facilities, nor the infrastructure, nor the required supply of renewable energy existed. Nothing has changed since then.
Even the previous German federal government had to grudgingly abandon green hydrogen for private heating – industrial supply could not even be secured.
The Next Unicorn: Biomethane
Instead of learning from this failure, the Merz government is already presenting the next miracle fuel in its new heating law: biomethane. Here, too, the supply gap is inevitable. Covering only 60% of German household demand would require several hundred million tonnes of additional biomass – despite already fluctuating crop yields. Only a fraction would remain for industry.
Political Symbolism Instead of an Energy Revolution
Green hydrogen and biomethane are not energy strategies, but political vehicles for justifying subsidies – homeopathic quantities sold as an industrial revolution. Anyone who wants to pursue serious energy policy should calculate with volumes, not press releases.
The Tariff Domino Effect: When Protectionism Demands More Protectionism
No sooner have the Member States waved through the new steel tariffs than the next industry calls for protection.
The Next Hand Reaches into the Subsidy Pot
It was predictable: no sooner had the new EU tariffs and import quotas on steel been adopted than the German Steel and Metal Processing Association, WSM, demanded that they be extended to steel processors – claiming that its members were under pressure from imports. What is left unsaid: this pressure is the direct consequence of the steel tariffs themselves.
Self-Inflicted Crisis, Wrong Diagnosis
Artificially inflated procurement costs – aggravated by the lack of competition among steel producers within Europe – are among the biggest cost drivers for the manufacturing sector. Instead of calling for the tariffs to be abolished, WSM chooses the more convenient route: even more protection, higher consumer prices, and further losses in competitiveness.
The Logic of the Protectionism Domino
Every protective measure creates new distortions, which in turn trigger new demands for protection. Steel producers are protected, steel processors suffer from the resulting costs and then demand protection of their own – and in the end, the consumer pays.
Brussels has not solved a problem. It has set off a cascade of subsidies throughout the entire value chain.
A Suggestion for Everyone Clamouring for Protection
Anyone calling for even more tariffs and shielding should be advised: find yourselves a communist country. Everything there is protected and regulated – you will never have to face competition again.
Anyone who wants to survive in a market economy must face competition, not abolish it through lobbying.
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