10 March 2026 – Forecasts pointing to rising global demand for steel and stainless steel in 2026 may prove accurate. In the stainless steel sector, several regions could even face supply shortages. Association warns: CBAM acting as a penalty tariff, import costs could rise by up to 50%.
Global Steel and Stainless Steel Demand Is Increasing
Forecasts suggesting that global steel demand will increase by around 1.3% in 2026 appear to be materializing. A key driver behind this development is the rapidly growing demand in India.
China: Stronger Domestic Demand, Declining Exports
Recent figures from China also point to a positive outlook. Domestic demand increased noticeably in January and February 2026, while steel exports declined by more than 8%.
Production of hot metal rose by approximately 1.2%, supported by higher iron ore demand during the first two months of the year.
Beijing Promotes Future Industries – Stainless Demand Likely to Benefit
Additional momentum comes from Beijing’s 2026 Government Work Report, which outlines plans to promote industries with strong growth potential. These include: integrated circuits, aerospace, biomedicine, and drone technology. Analysts expect these initiatives to increase demand for stainless steel products.
Capacity Limits No Longer Just a European Problem
Data on global stainless steel melt shop production, published at the end of February, show that capacity constraints are already becoming an issue. It is no longer only European stainless steel mills operating at the technical limits of capacity. The bottleneck is increasingly affecting producers in other regions as well.
CBAM Acting as a Penalty Tariff: Import Costs Rise by up to 50%
The European Fastener Distributor Association has raised the alarm. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, fully effective since January 2026, is sharply increasing the cost of imported screws, nuts, and other fasteners. In some cases, costs have reportedly risen by 30% to 50%.
Commission Creates Unmanageable Bureaucracy
According to EFDA, the cause lies in a structural failure by the European Commission.
Because a functioning verification system does not yet exist, importers cannot rely on actual emissions data. Instead, extremely high default values must be applied-values which EFDA says bear little relation to industrial reality.
The problem is further compounded by a severe shortage of certified verifiers. Their accreditation is not expected until summer 2027, far too late for the September 2027 compliance deadline.
Competitiveness of European Products at Risk
The consequences are far-reaching. Thousands of manufacturers worldwide are struggling with the bureaucratic complexity of the system. European end products – from automobiles to machinery – are becoming more expensive, while their competitiveness is declining.
EFDA President Andreas Bertaggia has therefore called on EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra to introduce immediate corrections, including adjustments to system boundaries, default values, and an extension of reporting deadlines.
Thorsten Gerber, CEO of the Gerber Group, said today: “Such a structural failure, combined with the expected economic damage running into billions, would already have cost those responsible in the private sector their jobs.”
Latest news
- Aluminium Prices Approach All-Time High
- CBAM Costs: Dutch Parliament Calls on Government to Act
- Parliament Suspends Work on EU-US Trade Deal
We at the Gerber Group have been trading in stainless steel worldwide for over 20 years. We are your experts when it comes to purchasing, import, logistics and services. Information is a vital part of this. Because only then can you and we make the right decisions. Do you have any questions? Contact us now.
Disclaimer: Many things here represent our opinion. Others are information from the Internet. We can therefore never claim to be correct or complete. And never base a business decision solely on the news you receive from us.
