2 July 2025 – German crude steel production dropped in May 2025: What’s really behind the decline? Aluminium prices on the LME and SHFE commodity exchanges continued to improve in June. LME copper stocks are almost depleted.
Aluminium prices and premiums rise again
Aluminium prices on the LME and SHFE commodity exchanges continued to improve in June. Prices on the SHFE rose by approximately 3.3% compared to the previous month. On the LME, prices for LME Aluminium 3 Month contracts rose by approximately 2.7%, with cash prices rising by just under 4.0%.
US MW aluminium premiums close to record levels again
After reaching a record high of around USD 0.60 per lb in mid-June, US Midwest aluminium premiums duty paid fell slightly for a short time, but jumped back up to around USD 0.59 per lb on 1 July.
The US Midwest aluminium premium is the regional price for aluminium in the Midwestern United States, which reflects local demand and supply for this metal and is added to the prices for LME aluminium.
LME copper stocks almost depleted
Copper stocks in LME warehouses are almost depleted. Most recently, the LME had only about 91,000 tonnes of copper in stock, which represents a decline of two-thirds compared to the beginning of January 2025. Of the remaining stocks, approximately 39,000 tonnes of copper originate from Russia, which has been subject to extensive Western sanctions and is considered virtually unsaleable.
This extreme decline is also reflected in the rise in the price of copper, whose cash prices had exceeded the USD 10,000 per tonne mark at the end of June. What is also unusual is that the prices for LME 3-month contracts are now lower than the cash prices. This underlines the fact that there is currently higher demand for copper available at short notice and an imbalance between supply and demand.
German crude steel production fell in May: what is really behind this?
The German steel maker association WV Stahl continued its narrative of a decline in German crude steel production for May 2025, explicitly pointing out that the blast furnace converter route (oxygen steel) in particular recorded a decline of over 13 per cent for crude steel. However, as usual, it refrained from naming the actual causes.
Large blast furnace shut down since May due to significant wear and tear
Among other things, a blast furnace in southern Germany with a theoretical annual capacity of approximately 2.3 million tonnes of pig iron was shut down prematurely in May due to significant wear and tear. This was the actual reason for the decline in crude steel production in May 2025. With a planned maintenance period of approximately 55 days, at least 350,000 tonnes less pig iron will be produced.
Many European blast furnaces are currently at the end of their service life and are therefore operating at a lower level. There is no discernible reduction in the production of hot-rolled products compared to the previous year; in fact, it has increased by approximately 0.5%.
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