30 July 2025 – EU member state France has called on the European Commission to find a successor to the EU Safeguard Measure on steel and would like to turn back the clock on steel with unrealistic expectations. Base metal prices are trending sideways. US aluminium premiums have risen again.
Base metal prices trending sideways
Asian prices for base metals have largely trended sideways today. In Europe, too, base metals showed rather subdued, sideways trends at the start of trading.
US aluminium premiums rise again
US aluminium premiums continue to move in only one direction – upwards. Premiums improved again yesterday (Tuesday) and currently stand at around USD 0.68/lb. This means that aluminium premiums have risen by around 14.7% since the beginning of July.
France calls on EU to take action on steel
France has taken the lead in calling on the European Commission to introduce a ‘highly effective’ successor to the EU Safeguard Measure on certain steel products, as the Safeguard is set to expire in June 2026. If France and some other EU member states have their way, this new trade defence measure will come into force as early as 1 January 2026. In addition, the non-paper calls for a 40 to 50% reduction in existing import quotas.
Steel era to be turned back a decade
The central aim of the French demands is to bring the capacity utilisation of EU steel mills back to the level of 2013 to 2014, which would mean that the EU’s CO2 targets would be completely obsolete. A crude steel capacity utilisation of almost 85% at the 2013/2014 level is only possible if the ageing and environmentally harmful blast furnaces in the EU continue to operate.
In February 2025, the French had still demanded that the EU Safeguard Measure be extended again. Although this would violate the rules of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Furthermore, there cannot be a second new Safeguard Measure for the same products immediately afterwards, as there is a waiting period resulting from the duration of a Safeguard Measure – in the case of the EU, this would be eight years.
At the same time, there were also calls for cleanly produced steel from non-EU countries to be blocked under CBAM. However, CBAM is not even mentioned in the new paper.
CBAM and Safeguard successor not WTO-compliant
The Commission is thus faced with a task that it can hardly accomplish. This is because the EU CBAM measure was actually intended to be the successor to Safeguard. According to WTO rules, double taxation on imports is not permitted. Thus, France’s demand for a ‘highly effective’ trade protection measure on steel from 2026 onwards is hampered by two WTO rules.
SMEs are once again ignored in the demands
It is hardly surprising that France’s initiative once again only pursues the interests of its large corporations, as the country has no understanding of small and medium-sized enterprises and this entrepreneurial culture simply does not exist there and is obviously also undesirable. It is therefore remarkable that Italy, whose economy is largely driven by SMEs, is supporting this initiative. The fact that Italy of all countries has fallen for this foolish socialist communist propaganda is more than surprising.
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