14 April 2026 – The trilogue agreement reached on 13 April 2026 on the successor regime to the EU steel safeguard measure is being presented by all three institutions as a success – albeit with strikingly different emphases. Raw materials continue to trend upward. Nickel: Indonesia significantly revises its guidelines for benchmark prices.
Base Metals Continue to Trend Upward
After nickel (+2.62%), copper (+1.00%) and aluminium (+2.53%) on the London Metal Exchange (LME) had already risen on Monday, the three base metals also opened Tuesday’s trading session with gains, up between 1.33% and 2.20%.
Alongside stainless steel futures, nickel (+3.91%), copper (+2.05%) and aluminium (+0.75%) also posted gains today on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE).
Nickel: Indonesia Significantly Revises Guidelines for Benchmark Prices
Yesterday, the Indonesian government announced changes to the guidelines for setting benchmark prices for the sale of metal minerals and coal to companies, service providers, as well as nickel and bauxite industry associations.
Analysts expect that this policy shift could increase production costs by around 12% or more in downstream industries, including the stainless steel and electric vehicle battery sectors.
According to initial assessments, this measure is not a simple price adjustment, but a complete overhaul of the pricing architecture for nickel.
Agreement in the EU Steel Trilogue: Three Narratives, One Blind Spot
The trilogue agreement reached on 13 April 2026 on the successor regime to the EU steel safeguard measure is being presented by all three institutions as a success – albeit with strikingly different emphases.
Three Perspectives, One Outcome
The Commission stresses that the text contains all the core elements of its October 2025 proposal: an 18.3 million tonne duty-free quota, a 50% out-of-quota tariff, 30 product categories, and a melt-and-pour rule. It frames the deal as an implementation of the Steel and Metals Action Plan and thus as a negotiating success of its own.
Parliament highlights its tougher additions: more precise traceability, consideration of origin and melt-and-pour in quota allocation, and an early review of the scope of application after just six months – significantly shorter than the two years originally envisaged.
The Council positions itself as the balancing actor, emphasising flexibility for downstream industries, the retention of the carry-over mechanism, WTO compliance, and the phase-out of Russian steel imports, which consist almost exclusively of slabs and other semi-finished products – an emphasis the Commission does not make at all, and which Parliament addresses only indirectly.
As soon as the final draft regulation from the trilogue negotiations is available, we will provide you with full details.
The Blind Spot in the Trilogue: Slabs
What none of the three press releases of the trilogue negotiators mentions is that in 2025, EU steel producers themselves imported almost 10 million tonnes of slabs, an increase of more than 35% compared with the previous year, including around 1.6 million tonnes of Chinese-origin material alone. These semi-finished products remain outside the quotas and outside the melt-and-pour logic, even though they are processed exclusively by precisely those integrated rolling mills that are calling most loudly for protection. The central loophole in the system is therefore structural – not by accident, but by design.
WTO Compliance: Questionable
The claim of WTO compliance does not withstand close scrutiny. Basing quotas on the reference year 2013, while the EU economy has grown by around 19% and exports by more than 45% since then, amounts to a substantial reduction in bound concessions. Article XXVIII of the GATT requires compensation for this; without serious negotiations with trading partners, the legal basis is fragile – and the risk of retaliatory measures is more than real.
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