31 August 2022 – After isolated price increases at the beginning of the week, EU steel producers have now started to raise prices across the board. Market is getting bullish. Primary aluminium capacities in short supply – deficit of up to 1.2 million tonnes per year expected. And the coming Christmas trade is already making itself felt. Demand for container transport increases by 200% m-o-m.
EU steel producers raise prices broadly
According to market reports, European steel producers across the board have started to raise their prices. ArcelorMittal’s price increases of about 14% for HRC at the beginning of the week seem to be just the beginning. On average, the producers are raising their offers by between 10 and 14%. Initial assessments from market participants see a bullish mood in the market.
Aluminium: Limited smelter capacity additions and an uptick in demand
According to a recent report by CRISIL, limited smelter capacity additions and an uptick in demand are expected to lead to rising aluminium prices in the coming months and years.
China must rethink aluminium
The report assumes that China in particular will not allow any further aluminium smelting capacities. Instead, it will concentrate on reducing the immense emissions from its coal-fired smelters. To this end, primary aluminium capacities are probably already being dismantled and rebuilt in hydropower-rich regions.
Investments in alternative energies drive demand
In addition, structural aluminium demand growth is expected to be driven by global green investments in electric vehicles, solar panels and renewable energy grids, most of which have high aluminium intensity.
Primary aluminium deficit of 1.2 million tonnes per annum
The robust demand growth expected by CRISIL is expected to lead to a deficit of up to 1.2 million tonnes of primary aluminium per annum in the global market in the coming years.
Container prices to rise again by 15 to 20%?
Container freight prices are expected to rise again ahead of the upcoming holiday periods. The logistics industry expects an increase of between 15 and 20%. The background is the existing challenges in the global supply chains and the strong demand from the European Union and the United States.
Some Asian regions are already reporting a 200% month-on-month increase in demand for one-way pickups due to the Western Christmas shopping season. An increase in freight rates and tight availabilities are expected.
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