16 January 2025 – EU sanctions against Russian raw aluminium seem more likely in the 16th sanctions package to be adopted in February 2025. Positive sentiment among US small companies. German stock index DAX jumps to record high after good inflation data from the United States.
Positive sentiment among US small businesses
The latest survey by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) shows a noticeable improvement in sentiment among US small businesses. Following a historic rise in November, the NFIB index reached its highest level since 2018. 50 per cent of the companies surveyed expect business conditions to improve over the next six months – a peak value that has only been exceeded once in the last 40 years.
Observers see this as a sign of optimism and confidence in the economic future. Historically, such upturns in sentiment have often been accompanied by a strong performance of US second-line stocks, which offers potential for positive market trends.
Good inflation data boosts stock markets
Positive sentiment could also be observed on the US stock markets yesterday and on the Asian trading centres today. Good inflation data convinced investors that the US Federal Reserve could possibly make its monetary policy less restrictive in the coming months than previously assumed. The German stock index DAX also rose to an all-time high of over 20,665 points this Thursday.
Following the change of contracts on the LME and SHFE yesterday (Wednesday), the nickel price also showed stability.
EU sanctions against aluminium from Russia become more likely
According to recent media reports, the Commission appears to want to submit a concrete proposal to the member states for sanctions against alloyed and unalloyed unwrought aluminium of Russian origin. Similar to sanctions against certain Russian steel exports, for example, longer transitional periods also appear to be planned for unwrought aluminium until the sanctions actually take effect.
EU sanctions against Russia full of loopholes
Transitional periods until 2028 apply to Russian primary steel products, such as steel slabs that are further processed into hot-rolled coil, which is why millions of tonnes of steel slabs are still being imported into the EU from Russia – while the domestic downstream industry have been excluded from these exemptions.
Processed aluminium products, such as aluminium sheets, rods, bars and tubes, have already been subject to EU sanctions for some time.
The United States and the United Kingdom have taken much more restrictive measures than the European Union.
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