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December 20, 2021 – On Friday (December 17, 2021), the European Commission announced information on the start of the EU Safeguard Review in 2022 and on the Anti-subsidy proceeding concerning imports of stainless steel cold-rolled flat products originating in India and Indonesia (AS678). Spot and future prices for base metals diverge. European stainless steel prices up again. Aluminium prices at $3,000 per tonne in 2022?

Stainless Espresso: EU Safeguard and anti-subsidy definitive disclosure against Indonesia and India
Stainless Espresso: EU Safeguard and anti-subsidy definitive disclosure against Indonesia and India

Base metals: Spots and futures diverge

A decoupled trend in spot and futures prices for base metals has been evident for some time. While there have been declines in futures, spot prices and premium premiums have risen. Experts currently see the more realistic picture not in futures but in spot prices.

EU stainless steel: prices up again

European stainless steel prices for flat-rolled coil and sheet rose again last week by $100 to $150 per tonne. The background is still the tight availability on the European market.

Aluminium in short supply – Citi sees prices at around $2,950 per tonne in 2022

Global aluminium production is expected to remain in deficit in 2022. At least that is what analysts at Citi and Macquarie said. According to their analysis, the deficit could average 1.5 million tonnes per year again. Citi analysts think that the price for the tonne of aluminium could therefore be as high as $3,000 per tonne in 2022. This would represent an increase of about 7% compared to 2021.

EU Safeguard Review in 2022

On Friday, 17 December 2021, the European Commission (EC) surprisingly for many made the announcement for the upcoming review of the EU Safeguard measure on various steel products in 2022.

EU-US steel deal changes market conditions

Due to the steel deal with the United States and the resulting tariff rate quotas, we had already predicted in August 2021 that, in accordance with the Safeguard guidelines, a review of the Safeguard measures would have to be initiated immediately by the EC due to changed market conditions.

We will go into detail today on the EC’s announcement on the EU Safeguard Review.

EU Anti-subsidy Proceedings against Stainless Steel from India and Indonesia

The anti-subsidy proceedings of the European Commission against flat-rolled stainless steel products from India and Indonesia are coming to an end. Also on Friday, the EC sent the Definitive Disclosure on proceeding AS678 “Anti-subsidy proceeding concerning imports of stainless steel cold-rolled flat products originating in India and Indonesia” to the governments of the countries concerned and to interested and involved parties.

Comments until the beginning of January 2022

Currently, the parties concerned still have the opportunity to comment. But as we had already expected, it is already clear to the EC that anti-subsidy measures have to be taken against the subsidised companies in India and Indonesia.

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