8 April 2025 – There seems to be only one thing the European Union can do in the US tariff conflict: sabre-rattle! Because the carrot that the Commission held out to the US government in the form of a ‘zero-to-zero’ tariff agreement is ultimately only one thing: pretty rotten! What’s more, the past few days have shown that sensationalist headlines about a stock market earthquake ultimately only benefit one party: The mainstream media – because on closer inspection, the end of the world has once again failed to materialise.
- Tariffs: the US government's known blueprint
- Same approach: US fair trade and EU level playing field
- Trump already supported the Reciprocal Trade Act in 2019
- US President rejects the EU's proposals for a ‘zero-to-zero’ tariff agreement
- Trump rejects EU offer, but leaves door wide open
- Does the EU prefer escalation over solutions?
- EU holds out rotten carrot to US in form of ‘zero-to-zero’ tariffs
- Circulation and headlines: How the press pours oil on the fire
Tariffs: the US government’s known blueprint
The ‘Mandate for Leadership 2025’ is a 900-page guide developed by the Heritage Foundation and other conservative groups that contains detailed policy recommendations for a future conservative US government. Among other things, it aims to strengthen executive power, restructure the federal administration and promote conservative values in various policy areas. The policy paper was published as early as 2023 and was frequently mentioned in the media worldwide as so-called Project 2025.
The paper also contains very specific demands for a much more active trade policy that includes tariffs as a central means of asserting US interests. The aim is to pursue a fair trade approach rather than the previous free trade approach.
Same approach: US fair trade and EU level playing field
Overall, the fair trade approach from Project 2025 and the new US administration is similar to the level playing field slogan that the European Union has been pursuing for several years.
‘For decades the world has struggled with a shifting maze of punitive tariffs, export subsidies, quotas, dollar-locked currencies, and the like. Many of these import-inhibiting and export-encouraging devices have long been employed by major exporting countries trying to amass ever larger trade surpluses.’ –
Project 2025 is certainly not without controversy and has repeatedly been subject to massive criticism in the recent past. Whether justified or not, however, the ‘Mandate for Leadership 2025’ is a blueprint for the trade policy measures currently being implemented by President Donald Trump. And a paper that, as mentioned at the beginning, was already published in 2023.
Nothing about the Mandate for Leadership 2025 is therefore new, and the leaders of the European Commission in particular, who currently like to pretend that the measures taken by President Trump have come as a surprise or are completely new, are revealing a glaring gap in their knowledge or are simply not telling the truth.
Trump already supported the Reciprocal Trade Act in 2019
Donald Trump had already supported a Republican legislative initiative to introduce a ‘Reciprocal Trade Act’ in 2019, as evidenced by the Remarks by President Trump in a Meeting with Republican Members of Congress on the United States Reciprocal Trade Act of 24 January 2019.
‘The United States Reciprocal Trade Act – this legislation will help finally to give our workers a fair and level playing field against other countries. Countries are taking advantage of us, whether they think we’re very nice or not so smart. They’ve been doing it for many, many years, and we want to end it.’
US President rejects the EU’s proposals for a ‘zero-to-zero’ tariff agreement
A ‘zero-to-zero’ tariffs agreement for cars and industrial goods allegedly proposed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyens and her Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič to the US government back in February was then rejected by President Trump yesterday, Monday, who said the offer was not sufficient.
Trump rejects EU offer, but leaves door wide open
‘We have a deficit with the European Union of $350bn and it’s going to disappear fast. And one of the reasons and one of the ways that that can disappear easily and quickly is they’re going to have to buy our energy from us because they need it. They’re going to have to buy it from us. … We can knock off $350bn in one week,’ Donald Trump said yesterday. A well-known wish of the President, which we have not only mentioned here in recent months, but have also made several times to the European Union.
It also remains to be considered that perhaps not only the content of the European Union’s offer, but perhaps also the people who delivered it, could have led to the Trump administration’s rejection. It is well enough known that Mrs von der Leyen and her commissioners are not the most popular in Washington.
Does the EU prefer escalation over solutions?
The EU’s constant threatening gestures towards its most important trading partner, which point more towards escalation than détente, and which are now also considering a possible tax on digital services from the United States, are simply short-sighted and the typical reaction of the EU to tariffs with counter-tariffs or new taxes.
This is because the EU member states and the Commission are currently only hitting small and medium-sized companies and their own citizens with their sabre-rattling, who will ultimately have to foot the bill and are thus once again being trampled underfoot.
Thorsten Gerber, CEO of the Gerber Group, said today: ‘What is the EU’s goal? To really get a fair and good deal, or to look like the poor victim in the mainstream media and thereby create a reason to impose even more tariffs and trade barriers?’
EU holds out rotten carrot to US in form of ‘zero-to-zero’ tariffs
Instead of offering the US government an obviously rotten carrot in the form of a ‘zero-to-zero’ tariff agreement for cars and industrial goods, where tariffs are traditionally very low, the EU needs a strong energy supplier, which it would have in the form of the United States and at the same time would also help to shift the focus of its strongest NATO partner back to the EU – because the latter could once again see attractive economic conditions that might even be worth its NATO membership.
And the example of China should make clear what countermeasures on the part of the EU would trigger. After responding to the new US measures with 34% counter-tariffs, Donald Trump has given the Chinese government an ultimatum to withdraw them by today. Otherwise, there is a threat of a further 50% increase in US tariffs on Chinese products.
Circulation and headlines: How the press pours oil on the fire
Since the announcement of the reciprocal US tariffs, there have been some price corrections on the global stock markets on Friday last week and on Monday this week, which, unsurprisingly, were largely halted or even reversed today, Tuesday.
Instead of looking at the lurid headlines of a mainstream press optimised for circulation and click figures, it would be better to look at the facts.
Lurid headlines only benefit the media
If we look at the key stock market indices of the Dow Jones, DAX, Hang Seng, Nikkei 225, Nifty 50 and Topix, they were already up today, in some cases already on Monday. Compared to April last year, only the Nikkei 225 and the Topix had actually lost value. And 5 out of 6 index values were still between 11 and 24% above their April 2023 level.
A real stock market crash looks different. A Black Friday and a Panic Monday too. Perhaps it has simply come to a necessary and long overdue correction. Or, as is so often the case, a huge deal for bets on falling stock market prices, which were compliantly supported by the press. After all, the big media houses have long ceased to be interested in neutral reporting.
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