20 May 2025 – The European Commission presented its spring forecast the EU for 2025 yesterday, pointing mainly to external causes for a mixed outlook. It ignored its own responsibility for the figures now available, particularly with regard to bureaucracy and tariffs. British economy picks up speed: strong growth thanks to industry and services.
EU ignores its own responsibility in current growth forecast
The European Commission presented its spring forecast for 2025 yesterday – with rather sobering figures. It expects growth of just 0.9% for the eurozone and 1.1% for the EU as a whole. Things look particularly bleak for Germany: Here, the Commission expects no growth at all.
Brussels cites the new trade tariffs imposed by the US government under Donald Trump – for example on steel, aluminium, cars and other European products – as the main reason. The Commission is conspicuously uncritical in adopting the narrative that the Section 232 tariffs are new tariffs – which, on closer inspection, is simply wrong.
Double standards in trade policy
It is interesting to see how quickly Brussels reacts to other countries’ tariffs by criticising them – while at the same time continuing to expand its own protectionist measures. As recently as March 2025, the Commission extended and even tightened the EU Safeguard measure on certain steel products – on a rather shaky basis of argument. The result: higher production costs for the industry and rising prices for consumers.
Market assessment without a factual basis
The Commission’s report also remains vague when it comes to metal prices. Allegedly, these have come under pressure as a result of the tariff disputes – but there are no concrete figures or data. Current developments on the London Metal Exchange (LME) show a completely different picture: futures for European steel are up more than 18% since the beginning of the year. After the Section 232 tariffs were updated in March, prices even rose by 9.5%. This speaks more in favour of supply bottlenecks than falling demand.
Sprawling bureaucracy in Brussels: the great silence
What is also missing from the forecast: the increasing bureaucracy in the EU and in the member states – although it is regularly criticised by companies, associations and parliamentarians as a brake on growth. The fact that this aspect is not mentioned in the report at all or only in passing is more than a mere omission – it reveals a structural problem.
The Commission’s spring forecast not only throws a spotlight on economic challenges – but also on analytical deficits. Instead of blaming external factors alone, it would be appropriate to take a critical look at our own policies. After all, anyone who seriously wants to promote growth should also be prepared to scrutinise themselves.
British economy picks up speed: strong growth thanks to industry and services
The British economy, freed from the bureaucracy and regulatory clamp of the EU, has started 2025 with momentum: In the first quarter, gross domestic product grew by 0.7 per cent – the strongest growth in a year. The strong upturn in the manufacturing sector, which grew by 1.1 per cent, is particularly pleasing. The production of machinery and transport equipment provided strong impetus. The service sector also contributed to the positive development with growth of 0.7 per cent, particularly through trade and administrative services.
This momentum underlines the competitiveness of the British economy in a challenging global environment and once again clearly shows where the real trouble lies in the European Union. Tailwinds also came from increased export activity, particularly to the USA. Despite cautious assessments by the Bank of England, the robust first quarter is boosting confidence in British companies.
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