After a first analysis of the EU Safeguard notification to the WTO of June 11, 2021, we found possible errors in the calculation and the justification for the extension. Is scrap now running out in the EU in addition to steel? And the high steel prices seem to continue through the second half of 2021.

Stainless Espresso: Errors in the EU Safeguard justification?
Stainless Espresso: Errors in the EU Safeguard justification?

Is the EU now also running out of scrap?

Several sources reported last week that scrap prices in the European Union had risen sharply. Compared to prices from mid-May, scrap prices for June 2021 increased by over 16%.

Suppliers again reported strong scrap demand from European mills amid record-high finished steel prices for both flat and long products.

In Germany in particular, the shortage of scrap is further fueled by the recent increase in production stoppages in the automotive industry.

Record steel prices likely again in 2nd half 2021

The Indian rating agency Brickwork Ratings (BWR) expects the high steel prices to continue through the second half of 2021.

Key demand drivers in India are currently the automotive sector, the construction and housing market, and the infrastructure sector.

BWR believes the main reason for the higher international steel prices is the restriction of exports by China. Most Chinese steel is now consumed locally, resulting in tight supply in global trade.

Source: brickworkratings.com

Outrage over Safeguard measures

We have been receiving the first reactions to the announced extension of EU Safeguard measures on steel since Friday. The European Union had stated on Friday, June 11, 2021, that it would extend the existing Safeguard measures for three (3) years and increase import quotas by only 3.00% per year.

Errors in Safeguard notification?

In addition, we have already noticed possible errors in the calculation and thus the Safeguard justification after the first review.

The detailed article on this issue can be found here: Outrage over EU Safeguard extension and possible errors

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