25 August 2025 – Raw materials record slight price increases at the start of the week. A melting ladle burns through at a steelworks in Hamburg. And according to its own figures, the EU has 80 million tonnes of overcapacity in crude steel – which suddenly disappeared in 2025?
Raw materials: Slight price increases at the start of the week
At the start of the week, important raw materials such as nickel (+0.6%) and aluminium (+0.5%) posted slight gains on the Asian SHFE. With increases of more than 2.0% in some cases, iron ore prices in particular rose significantly on the Singapore Exchange on Monday. Chinese steel products such as hot-rolled coil (+1.1%) and cold-rolled coil (+1.0%) also improved. Spot market prices for 300 series stainless steel rose by around 0.8%, while 400 series prices rose by as much as 0.9%.
Hamburg steel mill: melting ladle burned through
A melting ladle burned through at a steel mill in Hamburg over the weekend. According to media reports, the ladle, which can hold up to 140 tonnes, was filled with an unknown amount of steel at the time of the accident. The molten contents spilled into the factory hall, and 60 members of the Hamburg fire brigade had to assist the steelworks operator’s factory fire brigade in containing the spill. Fortunately, no one was injured.
The latest reports on the incident are similar to a comparable case at the same mill that occurred in 2024. At that time, approximately 80 tonnes of liquid steel leaked from a defective melting ladle.
Such fatal accidents often occur when, for example, maintenance work on melting ladles and the important refractory material with which the ladles are lined is not carried out properly or maintenance intervals are not adhered to. Or when important refractory material is not available in full or in the appropriate quality.
EU anti-dumping investigations against important refractory raw material
In light of these aspects, it is of course interesting that there are currently ongoing EU anti-dumping proceedings against an important raw material used in the production of refractory material. This concerns fused alumina originating in China. According to the European Commission, fused alumina is a raw material for refractory materials that is ‘essential for the production of steel’.
Anti-dumping duties of more than 130% are looming
This investigation, which is nearing completion and could result in anti-dumping duties of more than 130%, could explain why maintenance cycles may have been extended. Overall, however, it is yet another shining example of how market protection measures only ever harm the domestic market. Even with 100% utilisation of EU capacity for fused alumina, European producers are unable to meet demand.
Crude steel: EU has 80 million tonnes of overcapacity
The European Commission currently wants to revise the EU’s ‘Rescue and Restructuring Guidelines’. The Commission has focused particular attention on the steel sector, which was previously excluded from these guidelines.
In the accompanying letter to the initiative Revision of the Communication from the Commission — Guidelines on State aid for rescuing and restructuring non-financial undertakings in difficulty (2014/C249/01), the Commission writes about crude steel, among other things:
‘This sector was excluded from the scope of the Guidelines in 2014 due to EU and global overcapacity. While there is no longer structural overcapacity in steel in the EU itself, global overcapacities still exist.’
Already before 2014: Significant crude steel overcapacity in Europe
As early as 2014, the EU had determined that its own steel production was sitting on a mountain of overcapacity of approximately 80 million (mm) tonnes, with a total nominal annual capacity of 217 million tonnes of crude steel (including the UK, approximately 12 mm tonnes).
The Guidelines on State aid for rescuing and restructuring non-financial undertakings in difficulty therefore emphatically stated: ‘However, in the present conditions of significant European and global overcapacity, State aid for rescuing and restructuring steel undertakings in difficulty is not justified.
No change in EU crude steel capacity since 2014
According to OECD data, the EU27 still had more than 205 mm tonnes of crude steel capacity in 2023. If the EC is to be believed, these European crude steel overcapacities (approx. 76 mm tonnes) have suddenly disappeared in 2025. While, according to the Commission, massive overcapacities are of course expected to continue to exist all over the world – except (no wonder) in Europe.
With this newly published initiative, the European Commission is once again distorting the facts in favour of a single lobby that is already oversubsidised and overprotected. As is so often the case, the Commission fails to provide any evidence to support its claim.
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