13 August 2026 – Brussels corrects its CBAM default values after seven months. Almost all figures are lower. Yet consultants are still warning of additional costs running into six figures. Who turns an administrative error into a business model, and who pays for it. Due to a gas shortage, the largest alumina refinery outside China was forced to cut production to 50 per cent of capacity last week.
Alunorte Curtailed: Aluminium Premiums Rise Again
Last week, Norsk Hydro reduced production at Alunorte to 50 per cent of capacity due to a gas shortage. The world’s largest alumina refinery outside China is therefore operating at only half capacity.
If disruptions in the Gulf persist, the global alumina deficit could exceed 900,000 tonnes this year. LME exchange inventories fell to 251,700 tonnes yesterday, according to media reports the lowest level since November 1990.
After the LME Aluminium Premium Duty Paid US Midwest reached a new all time high in June, it declined in July. Premiums for immediately available aluminium have since risen sharply again and were most recently quoted at USD 2,471.65 per tonne, or USD 1.12/lb.
CBAM Correction: When Administrative Errors Become a Consulting Market
On 31 July 2026, the European Commission corrected the CBAM default values it had published at the end of December 2025. The correction applies retroactively from 1 January 2026. Since then, social media posts have warned about outdated calculations and additional costs running into six figures.
A closer look at the changes tells a different story.
The Example Does Not Match the Correction
One warning uses an example of an additional 0.2 tonnes of CO2 emissions per tonne of steel, extrapolated across 10,000 tonnes of imports. Mathematically correct.
The only problem is that no such increase can be found anywhere in Annex I. A line by line analysis of both versions identifies 487 affected country code combinations and 79 changed total default values. Of these, 46 are genuine replacements of one numerical value with another. All 46 go down.
The largest correction for steel amounts to 0.088 tonnes of CO2 per tonne, also downwards. In Thailand, many of the changes amount to just 0.001 tonnes. Anyone who calculated using the old values set aside too much, not too little.
415 Route Changes, Including 200 Empty Fields
The 415 changed production routes sound impressive. The published breakdown, however, shows that in 200 cases, or 48.2 per cent, the Commission had simply forgotten to enter a route at all. North Macedonia alone accounts for 141 newly added route entries.
Production routes are relevant. They determine the benchmark and the deduction for free allocation. But completing an incomplete table does not create 415 new cost risks.
Where the CBAM Values Actually Increase
There are increases, just not where the alarm is being raised. In Annex IV, for aluminium precursor materials of unknown origin, the values for two CN codes rise by around 47.5 per cent each.
Anyone issuing blanket warnings about rising steel costs appears not to have read the one section where there is a genuine increase in cost exposure.
The Real CBAM Scandal Is in Brussels
We publicly documented the significant anomalies and errors in the default values on 9 January 2026 and called for an immediate correction. It took until the end of July.
The Commission itself now acknowledges transcription errors and missing production routes. For seven months, the legally binding CBAM dataset remained in force despite known deficiencies.
Companies are expected to implement CBAM with the highest degree of precision. The authority itself needed more than half a year before that precision was even possible.
Fear as a Business Model
Checking calculations, updating systems and reviewing tariff classifications: all perfectly reasonable.
It is something else entirely to turn predominantly reduced and completed data into a scare scenario and then sell recalculation, data reconciliation and audit consulting on the back of it.
Small and medium sized enterprises are already paying for the Commission’s sloppiness. They do not need to pay a fear premium as well.
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