28 April 2025 – All signs point to growth for the aluminium market: analysts expect positive development in 2025, supported by stable supply structures and long-term trends. EU steel mills out with the steam ram? Domestic steel mills are once again trying to force member states into more protectionism and subsidies using the usual silent blackmail methods.
Aluminium market: positive prospects for 2025 and beyond
All signs point to growth for the aluminium market: analysts expect a positive development for 2025, supported by stable supply structures and long-term trends. Accordingly, prices could rise by 10 to 15% compared to the current level.
Demand also looks promising: it is expected to increase by an average of 2.1% per year until 2040 – primarily thanks to the construction industry, automotive industry and energy technology. Supply is also growing, albeit at a slightly slower rate of 1.6%. The recycling sector is particularly dynamic and could grow by an impressive 4.3% per year.
China’s aluminium production is reaching its limits
In China, the world’s largest aluminium producer, production capacity is almost exhausted: the government-imposed upper limit of 45 million tonnes has almost been reached. This is forcing the industry to rethink – towards more environmentally friendly production methods and a stronger focus on recycling. At the same time, this is creating opportunities for alternative suppliers outside China.
Analysts expect a moderate market deficit to emerge in 2025, which could increase significantly in 2026. This development will be driven primarily by the growing demand for aluminium as a result of the energy transition and the increasing demand for electromobility.
Robust market with long-term potential
All in all, the aluminium market remains stable – with good growth prospects and a solid price trend in the long term.
EU steel mills out with the steam ram?
Domestic steel mills are once again trying to force the member states into more protectionism and subsidies using the usual silent blackmail methods. The European Steel and Metal Action Plan recently presented by the EU Parliament and the Commission, as well as various other measures designed primarily to favour large corporations, still do not go far enough for the steel mills. In order to increase the pressure here, at least one large manufacturer has now announced that it will lay off employees.
Argument: Too much steel from China, too little protection from CBAM
Having recently branded the tightening of the EU Safeguard Measure on certain steel products as insufficiently ambitious, the steel mills are now reverting to their favourite arguments: too little protection against steel imports, especially from China, and an allegedly too weak EU Carbon Border Tax CBAM.
Once again, the new statistical base year 2021 from the European statistics authority EUROSTAT is being used as a stirrup. This is being used to conjure up an alleged glut of steel imports from China that does not exist. Compared to the previous base year 2015, steel imports from China fell by almost 60% in 2024.
EU steel mills conceal their own imports
It is also questionable that the large domestic steel producers’ own imports into the EU are once again being ignored here. Imports of primary materials such as steel and stainless steel slabs, which are processed by the large steel mills into hot-rolled coil and cold-rolled coil, for example, are often concealed in the EU.
Increased 16-fold: Imports of steel slabs from China
Imports of steel slabs from China, which can only be used by steel mills with their large rolling mills, jumped 16-fold in 2024 alone compared to 2021. And had an import share of at least 20% compared to EU Safeguard relevant imports from China.
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