22 August 2024 – A persistent shortage of alumina in China has been driving up prices for the essential aluminum raw material since the beginning of the year. At the same time, imports of raw aluminum and aluminum products to China have increased significantly. This has caused aluminum prices to rise significantly. And important prices for steel products and their raw materials have also risen.
Aluminum shortage in China drives up prices
A shortage of alumina in China that has persisted for several months has caused prices for the aluminum raw material to rise by more than 24% since the end of 2023. An end to the alumina shortage still does not appear to be in sight. SHFE stocks of aluminum oxide (alumina) have also fallen by more than 30% in the last three weeks.
China imports significantly more aluminum
The latest statistics from China show that raw aluminium and aluminium products in July 2024 were 11.1% higher than in the previous year at 260,000 tons. Total imports in seven months amounted to 2.3 million tons, an increase of 60.6% compared to the same period last year.
Is raw aluminum also becoming scarce in the United States?
The strong demand for aluminum in China, the short supply of aluminum and a recent rail strike in Canada, which is considered the most important supplier of raw aluminum to the United States, are likely to drive aluminum prices, which have already risen by almost 12% on the LME since the end of July, even higher. Today they are already up around 1.6%.
Prices for important steel products have risen
Prices for important steel products have risen on the commodity exchanges in recent days.
On the SHFE, prices for hot rolled coil (+0.76%), rebar (+1.27%) and steel wire rod (+1.63% ) rose, among others. On the CME, US Midwest Domestic Hot-Rolled Coil Steel Futures rose by approx. 0.89%. On the LME, steel HRC FOB China prices, among others, rose by more than 2%. DCE Iron Ore futures rose by 2.47% on Wednesday and are expected to rise by around 0.4% today (Thursday).
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